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R. E. Samuelson (NASA Goddard)
R. D. Lorenz, J. I. Lunine, and C. P. McKay have shown in a manuscript accepted for publication that, for a given ethane abundance and surface temperature, the nitrogen and methane abundances in Titan's atmosphere can be calculated, yielding a surface pressure that can be compared with the observed value. This is potentially a very valuable tool for examining the evolution of Titan's climatology. Its validity does depend on two important assumptions, however: 1) that the atmosphere of Titan is in global radiative equilibrium, and 2) that volatiles present are in vapor equilibrium with the surface. The former assumption has been shown to be likely, but the latter has not. Water vapor in the Earth's atmosphere, in fact, is generally not very close to equilibrium in a global sense. In the present work a heuristic approach is used to examine the likelihood that methane vapor is in equilibrium with Titan's surface. Plausible climate scenerios are examined that are consistent with methane vapor abundances derived from Voyager IRIS data. Simple precipitation and surface diffusion models are incorporated into the analysis. It is tentatively inferred that methane may be in surface equilibrium near the poles, but that equilibrium at low latitudes is more difficult to establish.