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V. Yurchyshyn (Big Bear Solar Observatory)
Recently we found that the Bz component in the interplanetary magnetic field is correlated with the projected speed of coronal mass ejections (CME). The relationship is better pronounced for very fast ejecta with speeds higher than 1200 km/s, while slower events display larger scatter. In turn, the Bz in IMF is correlated with the intensity of the Dst index of geomagnetic activity. Based on this result we are elaborating a procedure to routinely predict the magnitude of the Bz and the intensity of geomagnetic storms 1-2 days in advance by measuring speeds of halo CMEs as they propagate across the LASCO C3 field of view. Here we present our predictions made for 9 halo CMEs ejected during the period of violent solar activity in October-November 2003. The comparison between the predicted values of the Bz and the Dst index and the observed data shows that we were abble to satisfactory predict all three major geomagnetic events when the Dst index decreased below -300 nT.
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Bulletin of the American Astronomical Society, 36 #2
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