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P. C. Gregory (U. British Columbia), M. Peracaula, A. R. Taylor (U. Calgary)
A Bayesian analysis of the phase variations of the 26.5 day periodic radio outbursts from the high mass X-ray binary LSI+610 303 demonstrates a clear periodic modulation on a time scale similar to that previously found for the long term modulation of the outburst peak flux density. Combining the outburst phase and flux information we obtain a phase and flux modulation period of 1584-11+14 days as well as a more accurate outburst period of 26.4917 ± .0025 days. From the shape of the phase and outbursts flux modulation we find that larger outbursts occur at an earlier orbital phase, closer to periastron, probably as a result of variations in the wind from the rapidly rotating B star primary. The next maximum in long term flux modulation is predicted to occur between February, 1999 and March, 2000 (Julian day 2,451,233 to 2,451,633).