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T.R. Detman (NOAA-SEC), C.D. Fry (EXPI), Z. Smith (NOAA-SEC), M. Dryer (GI, UA Fairbanks and NOAA-SEC), W. Sun, C.S. Deehr (GI, UA Fairbanks), S.-I. Akasofu (IARC, Fairbanks)
Predicting solar wind conditions (plasma speed, density, and interplanetary magnetic field, IMF) affecting Earth is a major space weather challenge. Meeting this challenge requires modeling the solar wind, both the evolving background and energetic transient events, from the Sun to the Earth driven by real-time solar observations. The mapping of IMF lines that connect the Earth to a traveling interplanetary shock is also required for predicting solar energetic particles (SEP). Our group is developing an observation-driven, hybrid, kinematic/3D-MHD solar wind modeling system (H3DM) in order to simulate realistic solar wind conditions, including the time-dependent vector IMF at Earth. This system couples three mature corona and solar wind codes: the Wang-Sheeley-Schatten Source Surface Current Sheet model, the Hakamada-Akasofu-Fry (HAF) kinematic model, and the 3D MHD Interplanetary Global Model, Vectorized (IGMV). Scientifically, this effort seeks to improve the understanding of the role various drivers of solar wind and interplanetary disturbances play throughout the solar cycle. Operationally, we are working toward providing a capability to predict, following the observed launch of large-scale structures at the Sun, their evolution and propagation to Earth and beyond. We will describe the H3DM modeling system and provide a status report.
This study was partially funded by the University Partnering for Operational Support program (UPOS) and also partially funded under NASA Living With a Star (LWS) Targeted Research and Technology Grant NAG5-12527 and NOAA Work Order No. W-10,118.
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Bulletin of the American Astronomical Society, 36 #2
© YEAR. The American Astronomical Soceity.